Tourist arrivals across the Asia-Pacific region should reach about half of their 2019 levels, with a full recovery to pre-pandemic norms pushed back to 2025 or 2026, according to Oxford Economics estimates. That’s a reality check on optimism riding high as outfits like Booking.com celebrate a strong start to 2023, with January the best month for travel reservations since May.

Chinese tourists who made up about a quarter of the region’s tourist arrivals pre-pandemic might also remain a bit hesitant this year to travel to mask-free destinations, said James Lambert, director of economic consulting for Oxford Economics Asia.