A “strong wave” in Chinese outbound travel will begin again in 2023 and return to 2019 numbers by 2024, according to new projections from an institute studying those travelers.

Urging destinations keen to secure the first-mover advantage, the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute wants destinations to prepare for the return of Chinese outbound tourists with better products and more niche markets.

“The preparation, the acquisition of knowledge and the adaptation of services needs to be done now, before the wave arrives,” said Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the institute’s CEO.

And while a lot of trips would be to destinations within the region, pent-up demand and unspent travel money would also see a lot of long-haul travel from 2023 onwards, Arlt noted.

Besides business travellers and high net worth individuals, students would be the first to travel internationally. “The first Chinese outbound travellers will be motivated by business, health, family, and education,” Arlt said.

Moving away from package tours, the pandemic has also accelerated an increasing interest in independent travel, he noted.