Global airline passenger capacity is expected to fall 8.1% on the month in February, and would still be 24.2% below prepandemic levels in 2019, flight and data analytics company OAG said in its latest report, with most regions yet to see a meaningful improvement since the emergence of the contagious omicron variant.
OAG noted that only Central and Western Africa passenger capacities have recorded levels above prepandemic 2019, with a 5.5% increase in seats. The Southwest Pacific and Southeast Asian regions remain the furthest behind, with capacity operating at below 48.5% and 46.7%, respectively, compared to February 2019.
In line with this, analysts and traders have said the aviation sector in the West has generally staged a faster recovery versus the East, with the main difference being that the former has the advantage of a strong domestic air travel market that has supported recovery for flight demand.
"Aviation recovery since the start of the pandemic has taken a different trajectory for domestic and international capacity, with domestic capacity recovering faster and sooner," it said.
OAG said capacity in both domestic and international markets in February has yet to recover to November-December 2021 levels. Domestic capacity has fallen back to 10% of levels in 2019, deteriorating from 7% last month, while international capacity was hovering at 47% below prepandemic levels.
The travel data provider added that the US is edging closer to a recovery, with February's capacity sitting at just 5% below pre COVID-19 levels of 2019. Passenger capacity in China has bounced back into recovery, up 8% on the month, while capacity levels in India, Indonesia and Brazil are currently 16%-21% below 2019. Canada, one of the largest domestic markets, is still the furthest away from recovery.
Still, OAG said the global recovery outlook for the aviation sector remains affected by omicron restrictions and onerous travel protocols.