As the rollout of vaccines continues and consumers grow comfortable with the idea of a digital health passport, questions arise around what travel will ultimately look like as people start to mobilize again – and how businesses can compete in this new environment.

After all, in the United States alone, the travel sector in 2020 lost $492 billion – a 42% year-over-year decline – while international and business travel fell 76% and 70%, respectively, and the industry has yet to rebound.

However, there are promising signs of recovery: According to a survey from the IBM Institute for Business Value, vaccinated people are roughly 1.5 times more likely to take an overnight trip in the next six months.

Travelers between the ages of 25 and 39 are 62% more likely to travel in the first six months following their vaccination than people over the age of 55.

That said, the study finds that a sizable subset of the population plans to stay home indefinitely, with about one in four respondents saying they do not plan to travel in 2021, even after they receive the vaccine.

For business travel, vaccinations will increase the number of people traveling for business two to four times in most countries. Vaccinations will have the biggest impact on the comfort level of business travelers in Mexico, Germany and Brazil, although business travelers over the age of 55 feel less confident about taking work trips, with just 25% saying they would feel comfortable after they’re vaccinated.

As for how they travel, 47% of respondents say they plan to travel by car more once they’re vaccinated, while 30% say they plan to fly more often. Meanwhile, 23% of consumers say they plan to fly less.

According to the report, the cruise industry will experience the most significant net decline, with 26% of people saying they will use cruise ships less and just 17% saying they will use them more.

As travel companies compete for a smaller number of travelers this year, differentiation through the customer experience, loyalty programs and personalization will be key to attracting consumers.

“Organizations need to craft more tailored, segment-specific messages and solutions - understanding that individual consumers will want different things in different contexts. Seamless, personalized experiences may make the difference in a post-vaccine landscape,” the report states.

“From a broader perspective, it uncovers a new social need. Individuals are looking for a way to feel confident that gathering in large groups once again won’t lead to a rash of superspreader events.”