Zhang Yang, associate researcher of the Data Analysis Institute of China Tourism Academy, said at the quarterly academic achievements conference held at the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China on July 28 that the number of trips and willingness of the Chinese tourism market rose in the first half of this year, and the rational recovery of travel consumption. It is expected that the total number of trips in the second half of the year will reach 5.5 billion, and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 5 trillion yuan, recovering to about 80% of 2019.
"The month-on-month and year-on-year data of holiday, monthly and quarterly market indicators, city popularity, and passenger satisfaction all indicate that the tourism economy has reached a strategic turning point and entered a new channel of irreversible recovery," said Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Academy.
According to the report "Analysis of the Tourism Economy in the First Half of 2023 and Trend Forecast for the Second Half of 2023", influenced by multiple favorable factors, the tourism economy in the first half of 2023 entered a new channel of comprehensive recovery with "high and stable growth, booming supply and demand, and accelerated recovery". The average value of the comprehensive index of the tourism economy in the first two quarters of this year reached 114, returning to the prosperity range of 110-120. The comprehensive satisfaction index of the national tourists in the first half of 2023 was 80.08, also in the "satisfactory" range, up 0.32 (0.4%) month-on-month, and basically comparable to the level (80.15) in the first half of 2019.
Dai Bin pointed out that the current tourist satisfaction degree is stable, the next period of residents travel willingness and consumption expectations will be stable, investment institutions and market entities will be improved confidence.
In terms of international tourism, outbound tourism experienced a recovery from near to far in the first half of the year. It is estimated that outbound destinations received a total of 40.37 million mainland tourists in the first half of the year. Short-distance outbound tourism recovered first, with East Asia and Southeast Asia becoming the main destinations for outbound tourism. The average stay time of outbound tourists from the mainland in a single destination in Asia was the longest.
In terms of inbound tourism, Ctrip data showed that inbound air ticket bookings in the first half of this year have surpassed the same period in 2019, and inbound hotel bookings have recovered to about 70% of pre-epidemic levels. The China Tourism Academy analyzed that the advantages of traditional inbound tourist markets in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea tend to weaken, while the potential of inbound tourism from countries along the Belt and Road, such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, North Africa and Central and Eastern Europe, remains to be tapped.
Looking ahead to the tourism market in the second half of the year, the summer tourism season in 2023 has attracted high attention from all walks of life due to the rapid rise in demand for study, summer vacation, vacation and health care. It is also an important growth point of the tourism market in the second half of the year. According to Ctrip, since the summer, the number of air ticket bookings for traditional summer destinations represented by coastal tourism, grassland tourism and plateau tourism has increased by 23% compared with the same period in May, among which the increase of coastal destinations is the most significant, reaching 34%.
According to the latest data from Air Travel, since the summer vacation (7.1-7.26), the passenger transport volume of domestic routes has exceeded 46 million; the actual passenger flight volume of domestic routes has exceeded 330,000, recovering to about 102% of the same period in 2019. The actual inbound and outbound flight volume of domestic airlines has exceeded 18,000; the inbound and outbound passenger volume of domestic airlines has exceeded 3 million.
On July 23, the number of inbound and outbound passengers of domestic airlines exceeded 130,000, which set a new record for the single-day inbound and outbound passengers this year. According to the current booking situation, the average payable price (excluding tax) of domestic air tickets in August is about 1,347 yuan; the average payable price (excluding tax) of outbound air tickets is about 4,534 yuan.
According to the prediction of China Tourism Academy, this summer is indeed the hottest summer in the past five years. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists in June, July and August this year will reach 1.854 billion, accounting for 28.11% of the total number of domestic tourists; the revenue of domestic tourism will reach 1.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.46% of the total revenue of domestic tourism. Among them, during July and August, when the holidays of primary, middle and high school students are most concentrated, the number of domestic tourists is expected to reach 1.331 billion, accounting for 20.18% of the total number of domestic tourists; the revenue of domestic tourism will reach 0.86 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.71% of the total revenue of domestic tourism.
Dai Bin analyzed that the current tourism economic situation in our country can be summarized as: "the market sinks, consumption stratification, overall upgrading, tourism supply and demand imbalance and inadequacy, especially the lack of high-quality tourism products." Tourism consumption used to be more manifested in the pull effect ofDai Bin analyzed that the current tourism economic situation in our country can be summarized as: "the market sinks, consumption stratification, overall upgrading, tourism supply and demand imbalance and inadequacy, especially the lack of high-quality tourism products." Tourism consumption used to be more manifested in the pull effect of long-distance and long-distance tourism, but now it is mainly reflected in weekend leisure, short-term vacation, rural tourism and self-driving travel, plus less than 20% of inter-provincial and outbound tourism, tourism consumption presents a pluralistic, three-dimensional and complex characteristics, which can only be described by upgrading or downgrading.
In the face of changing consumer demand, tourists' experience is not only dependent on traditional travel service providers, but also closely related to local life service providers, infrastructure, business environment, public services, etc. Tourism authorities should not only focus on travel agencies, tour guides, star hotels, A-level scenic spots and resorts, but also focus on tourist satisfaction, market competitiveness and tourism development momentum, and strengthen the supply of high-quality tourism products.
